Of Senate Races and Cell Phones
According to the Cook Political Report, the it looks like control of the senate hinges on 9 states. With a Kerry win Dems need to take 6 of the 9, 7 with a Bush win. The 9 states are FL, LA, NC, SC, SD, CO, OK, AK, KY. At the moment, this is just me here, I'm confident of Tennenbaum in SC, Daschle in SD, Salazar in CO, Carson in OK and Knowles in AK. Betty Castor looks like a decent shot in Florida as well. That's 6 right there, which just means an upset in either North Carolina or Kentucky (and seriosuly senile Senator Jim Bunning seems to be doing more than necessary to make that happen in the Bluegrass State) or a huge Lousiana push in the Dember runoff to determine control of the Senate if Bush wins. That is good news for Democrats, because when they actually put money into Louisiana, they tend to do quite, and surprisingly well-witness Mary Lanrieu's upset reelection two years ago. As a former resident of Lousiana, I can say that it is still one of the few states driven by machine politics, and the Democratic machine there benefits immensely when local bigwigs have money to throw around instead of just rallying cries.
Buried in the latest Cook Report is another interesting tidbit that as far as I have seen, has not been reported. It seems that around 10 percent (including, myself and and Astro, if I'm not mistaken) of all Americans now only have cell phones. As pollsters are not allowed by federal law to call these people, that means there is a large group of people who aren't being polled. These people skew younger, poorer and less white than the average voter, groups that tend to skew decidedly for Democrats. Let's assume for a minute that of these people, 6 in 10 are planning on voting for Kerry 3 in 10 for Bush and 1 in 10 undecided, thus, in an average opinion poll that interviews likely voters and finds a 47-45 lead for Bush with 8 undecided, with these numbers taken into account, the poll info should actually be Kerry 46.5%-Bush 45.3% with 8.2% undecided.
Buried in the latest Cook Report is another interesting tidbit that as far as I have seen, has not been reported. It seems that around 10 percent (including, myself and and Astro, if I'm not mistaken) of all Americans now only have cell phones. As pollsters are not allowed by federal law to call these people, that means there is a large group of people who aren't being polled. These people skew younger, poorer and less white than the average voter, groups that tend to skew decidedly for Democrats. Let's assume for a minute that of these people, 6 in 10 are planning on voting for Kerry 3 in 10 for Bush and 1 in 10 undecided, thus, in an average opinion poll that interviews likely voters and finds a 47-45 lead for Bush with 8 undecided, with these numbers taken into account, the poll info should actually be Kerry 46.5%-Bush 45.3% with 8.2% undecided.
<< Home